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Stephen Nover Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 01, 2024
Guardians vs. Astros
Guardians
+155
  at  ACE
in 18m

I don't get the love for Houston here. The 10-19 Astros have been one of the biggest underachievers in baseball. The Guardians, by contrast, are tied for the second-best record in the majors at 19-10.

Houston starter Justin Verlander is royalty. But this is just his third start of the season as he works his way into shape. The Astros' bullpen has the sixth-highest ERA at 4.90. Star closer, Josh Hader, is unlikely to see action after pitching two innings last night, while throwing a season-high 33 pitches. Hader had not gotten more than three outs in a regular-season game since 2020.

Cleveland starter, righty Triston McKenzie, is a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. He's given up three runs in his last two games spanning nine innings recording 13 strikeouts during this time frame. The Astros are 6-12 vs righties.

McKenzie is backed by the top bullpen in baseball. Cleveland relief pitchers have a combined ERA of 2.49, which is the lowest in the league.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is off to a fast baseball start going 19-10-2 on his premium plays this season.)

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 30, 2024
Magic vs Cavs
Cavs
-4½ -110 at circa
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The Magic blew out the Cavaliers twice at home, 121-83 and 112-89, to even this series at 2-2.

Should the Cavaliers be worried? No. I think the Cavaliers have been playing possum and they will regain the series lead following this game.

The Cavaliers are home, after all, in this matchup.

Orlando isn't the same team on the road. The Magic are youthful and inexperienced in the postseason. They have dropped six straight away games.

The Cavaliers beat the Magic by an average of 13 points when they hosted them in Games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for the Cavaliers to re-establish their dominance here.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 30, 2024
Giants vs Red Sox
Giants
-124 at YouWager
Lost
$124.0
Play Type: Top Premium

The Red Sox have been getting great pitching in building a 16-13 record. I don't see that continuing starting with this game.

Giants starter Logan Webb hasn't been scored upon in his last 19 innings. He's a proven elite pitcher. Boston starter Cooper Criswell isn't. He has a 2.38 ERA in 11 1/3 innings this season, but can't be counted on to go deep into the game. I'm not sold on the Red Sox's bullpen, particularly middle relief. Key setup man Chris Martin has a 5.56 ERA.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  May 01, 2024
Heat vs Celtics
Heat
+14½ -115 at Mirage
Play Type: Top Premium

I'm betting that desperation, excellent defense and fine coaching will keep the Heat inside of this large number in this Game 5 playoff matchup. Miami is eliminated by a loss.

The Heat have held Boston to an average of 102.3 points during the past three games. I regard the Heat's Eric Spoelstra as an elite coach.

The Celtics will be without their star big man, Kristaps Porzingis. He's out with a calf injury.

Miami lost by 14 points in the last game. The Heat shot just 41 percent from the floor, 27 percent from 3-point range and only got to shoot 12 free throws. I expect the Heat to shoot better this game.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 01, 2024
Rays vs Brewers
Rays
-115 at circa
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium
Just like many of his teammates, Zach Eflin is off to a slow start after going 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA last season.

I expect a strong effort from Eflin and the Rays after a bench-clearing brawl during Tuesday night's games. Something like that can ignite a sleepy team.

Milwaukee starter Colin Rea is 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA. I expect regression from him. Rea's ERA the past three years were 4.55, 7.50 and 5.79. Rea doesn't generate many strikeouts. The Rays can exploit this.

The Brewers remain without injured outfielder Christian Yelich.
SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.